By Ryan Trabuco
Alright, everyone – it’s 2020. Not just the start of a new year, but we are officially entering one of the most consequential election years of our lifetimes. Of course, the presidential election is of grave importance. However, here in San Diego County, the look and feel of our county government could see a change unlike anything we’ve seen in recent decades as voters head to polls to elect three new county supervisors in District 1 (South Bay San Diego), District 2 (East County), and District 3 (North Coastal and North Inland). All three offices are currently held by Republicans.
The Union-Tribune reported a total of $1.5 million spent in all three races as of August.
What’s a county supervisor? Great question. San Diego County voters elect five supervisors, each representing roughly 650,000 people per district. It’s an elected office that combines the legislative responsibility of adopting countywide ordinances, the executive powers over direction and funding of county departments, and the judicial authority of appeals over local planning. County supervisors provide oversight of a $6.2 billion budget that funds public health, social services, law enforcement, and operational services for elections, voter registration, vital records, property records, and tax collection, just to name a few things.
The race in District 1 includes eight candidates running to succeed longtime Supervisor Greg Cox, however only three have largely demonstrated their ability to fundraise and earn the political support necessary to win in a competitive election. These candidates include Rafael Castellanos, a port commissioner, Ben Hueso, a state senator, and Nora Vargas, a community college trustee. The local Democratic Party has not endorsed here but did rate the aforementioned candidates as “qualified.”
Nora Vargas earned the endorsement of the San Diego Democrats for Equality, the local LGBTQ Democratic club (this author currently serves as its club president). Vargas also enjoys endorsements from Planned Parenthood, Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez, and former state senator Christine Kehoe among many others. Rafael Castellanos has raised the most money and has received support largely from environmental organizations like Sierra Club and Democrats for Environmental Action. Ben Hueso has an active campaign website but does not list any organizational or elected official endorsements.
According to the most recent voter registration totals from December, there’s a 23-point registration advantage towards Democrats in the South Bay-area seat. Among the elections for county supervisor, District 1 represents the Democratic Party’s best chance to flip a seat.
The race in District 2 includes four candidates, including: Joel Anderson, a former state legislator, Brian Sesko, a rancher and general contractor, Kenya Taylor, a family therapist, and Steve Vaus, the mayor of Poway. The local Democratic Party endorsed Kenya Taylor.
Politically, East County has long been dominated by right-wing conservative Republicans, however Donald Trump came along and 2018 happened. Congressional candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar came within 3-points of unseating the Duncan Hunter dynasty in a district where Republicans held a 50,000-voter advantage. Today, the East County supervisor seat holds a lot of overlap with the congressional district and Republicans have dwindled to just a 12,000-voter advantage.
Now, while most political pundits foresee a November run-off with the top two Republicans (Anderson and Vaus) it’s not out of the realm of possibility that District 2 could see a surprise showing for Democrats, considering the dramatic loss of registered Republicans in this seat. Among the elections for county supervisor, District 2 represents the Republican Party’s best chance to hold, but it largely depends on who advances into the November election, and voter turnout.
District 3 is the last supervisor election up for grabs in 2020. No hyperbole – this will likely be the most expensive race we’ll discuss today, and it features three candidates, including: Olga Diaz, an Escondido city councilmember, Kristin Gaspar, the incumbent supervisor, and Terra Lawson-Remer, an economist and community organizer. The local Democratic Party has not endorsed a candidate in District 3 but did rate Diaz and Lawson-Remer as “qualified.”
There’s a 23,000-voter registration advantage towards Democrats in District 3, and it is likely that Kristin Gaspar will face-off between either of her opponents in November.
Kristin Gaspar is a fan of Donald Trump. She’s said it. She’s travelled to the White House on any numerous occasions and publicly fawned over President Trump and his policies. Trump, of course, enjoys the subservient adulation and there is even a Facebook page dedicated to Gaspar’s devotion and love for Trump.
In 2018, Nathan Fletcher became the only Democratic elected official in county government. Conventional wisdom goes that any of the Democratic candidates in District 1 will likely flip that district. That leaves us with the outcome of District 3 – the election that could determine whether San Diego County government continues in its long-held conservative mindset or forges a new path towards more progressive policies.
